The West will get more one-two climate signals

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A one-to-two series of wildfires followed by heavy rain, flooding and debris, which often hit the U.S. West with a warming world, have become commonplace, he said. and further research.

That combination of fire-flooding, with a lot of water hitting an burned area throughout the year, could increase to eight strokes in the Pacific Northwest, double that in California and fly in place. of 50% in Colorado by 2100 is a very bad case. Climate change means more global warming emissions, according to research on Friday. Scientific advances.

The study said that while climate change is on the rise, 90% of major fire events will be followed by at least three heavy rains in the same area in five years.

The researchers said that while the West will be very dry – prolonging the fire season – heavy rainfall is increasing and coming in the future that areas could be affected by both. .

“One disaster is bad. Two disasters are worse than success because you’re in the first place from the first,” said historian Samantha Stevenson, a scientist at the University of Hawaii. California Santa Barbara. “But in the special case of wildfires and heavy rain, the fire is setting you up for better results because of the loss of your plant, you’re changing the soil resources and make that land suitable for flowing. “

Stevenson knew it was because of the Thomas Fire, which started in late 2017 and was followed a month later by rain of half an inch (13 millimeters) of rain in five minutes. , a landslide in Montecito killed 23 people.

“Yeah, it’s crazy,” Stevenson said. “It’s as if the whole street is covered in mud. The rocks are in people’s living rooms.”

For historian Daniel Swain, a western professor at UCLA living in Colorado, it’s very close to home. Last week, he had to leave his Boulder home because of a fire. Today is the beginning of the flowing season.

More so in the Western Pacific, fire and floodwaters continue to be long and close to each other. While both are rising, more rain should increase, Swain said.

“It’s kind of a double enclosure, where the light is shining on both sides,” Swain said. “It’s great that some of these places are always on fire when the first heavy rain destroys them.”

The report looked at 11 Western US states, four of which have seen the highest number of fires followed by rain.

The researchers found that the best global warming method they studied, using a wide range of climate models, was declining because, not all countries, with the United States and Europe, cutting back on heat emissions. gas.

They said they could not at that time use simulations of better models with some lower reductions. But in larger scenarios the Pacific Northwest is likely to continue to see a four-fold increase in fire- and flooding, said Danielle Touma, research lead author, a National Center for Atmospheric Research climate scientist.

The analogy of fire is not the fire themselves, nor the conditions of rain. University of California at Merced scientist LeRoy Westerling, who was not part of the research, said he was concerned about the accuracy of global computer simulations that could be performed on a small scale. However, he said, the consequences were reasonable.


The rains threaten the burning areas of the West


More information:
Danielle Touma, Air change increases the risk of heavy rains following a wildfire in the western United States, Scientific advances (2022). DOI: 10.1126 / sciadv.abm0320. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm0320

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Directions: Fire and rain: West for recapture of one-two worst disasters (2022, April 3) retrieved April 3, 2022 from https://phys.org/news/2022- 04-west-one-two-extreme-climate. html

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