In a new study published in Nature CommunicationsEarth scientists have taken on an ongoing challenge to science fiction: the near future.
“Common sense is that it will be 20 years before we can truly see that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is actually reducing the amount of global warming.” “policy makers are undertaking critical reduction efforts. At the same time, we can report global warming in a stable manner, with no speed or delay,” said the senior researcher. Bjørn Hallvard Samset at CICERO Center for International Climate Research.
Local change vs. global warming
Global warming affects the year given by global warming and changes in the climate system. Examples of local change are the El Nino and La Nina phenomena in the Pacific, and the NAO-index in the North Atlantic. These differences are independent of global warming, but global temperatures can fluctuate as much as 0.5 degrees Celsius each year.
When researchers calculate the amount of global warming, the more difficult it is to calculate global warming, the more short periods such as 10-20 years. This is why the IPCC-report has used global warming in the last 10 years (2001–2020), instead of just using it in the past year.
The new way to lower the volume
CICERO scientists, in collaboration with colleagues from Germany, the US and China, have developed a new way to reduce this noise, with promising results.
“We used a modeling tool to compare the characteristics of the ocean’s surface temperature to fluctuations in the average global temperature. Warmth,” said lead researcher Marianne Tronstad Lund.
The new way will quickly show if global warming emissions are being cut. While the effects of climate change will begin immediately, noise from various internal sources means that – until now – measurements can be as high as 20 years.
“We are working to reduce emissions, which is critical to sustainability so that we can report the impact of the cuts,” said Jan Fuglestvedt at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research.
After all, 2021 will be the second hottest year
At the time of writing the article, researchers were using a new generation of data from 2021 to remove “noise” from ocean temperature data. More than what the big data shows; The sixth or seventh warmest year, recent results show that 2021 will be “noise reduced” to be even colder than 2020.
“In the second place, and the records of global warming – with weight – will continue on the same path as in the past.”, Samset explains.
The rate of global warming continues to be the same as in the past
Another idea of the new method is for researchers to get a simple picture of the speed of global warming. Since the 1970s, they have shown that it is constant, at about 0.2 degrees Celsius every ten years. The numbers have not been slow or fast in recent years, according to some researchers.
“We’re on a solid path – where we don’t want to. It’s really surprising that anthropogenic global warming has continued to rise over a long period of time,” Samset said.
2021 will be one of the seven hot years on record
BH Samset et al, The first emergence of a hot response to dementia in age -difference screening, Nature Communications (2022). DOI: 10.1038 / s41467-022-29247-y
Presented by the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO)
Directions: A new and faster way to measure global warming without showing speed or delay (2022, March 30) Retrieved 31 March 2022 from https://phys.org/ news/2022-03-faster-method-global-slowdown.html
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