Climate change means more rain by 2020


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Climate change could be cleaner than Atlantic 2020, says new research. And it will rain more this season, scientists say.

The climate change man -made throughout the season – 30 bad names – dropped another 5% of rain. Of the 14 storms that reached the worst level, rainfall was more than 8%, according to a survey on Tuesday. Nature Communications.

“It doesn’t look like much, but if you’re close to a threshold, a small thing can push you over the top,” said Lawrence Berkeley National Lab scientist Michael Wehner, the paper’s author. “The idea is that there’s a lot of clean water flowing and that the risks from clean water flow are increased, but that’s a lot that requires a more thorough evaluation.”

While past studies have predicted that climate change will change and that personal disasters, such as 2017’s Harvey, will be wetter as a result of climate change, it is the first study to look at the entire season. , said Wehner. It’s important because the idea of ​​choosing the worst is shifted, like Harvey’s.

“It’s not just the big monsters, it’s an entire season,” Wehner said.

2020 may not be the only year that has been greatly enhanced by climate change. Warming rains are likely to increase near storms and most of the storm seasons, with one beginning on June 1, said research lead author Kevin Reed, a scientist. at Stony Brook University.

And what about 2020. It broke records not only for the number of storms called, but for the number that became major storms with winds of about 111 miles per hour – Seven – and the number landed in the United States. Louisiana struck five times. In all, more than 330 people were directly killed by the so -called storms in 2020 and the damage increased to more than $ 41 billion, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Hurricanes Laura, Sally, Isaiah, Zeta, Delta, Eta and Hanna were all damaged by more than $ 1 billion, most of it from the water. Laura, for example, has 10% more water than water without climate change, a quick review report shows, Reed said.

The researchers used computer simulations – continuous with real -time observation – to calculate how much water fell during the 30 storms and then compare them to a modeled world. without man changing the climate from burning coal, oil and natural gas. The difference is the cause of global warming. This technology was obtained with scientific approval with scores of 5% and 8%.

When scientists looked at only three rainy hours of each storm, the climate change for them increased by 8% compared to the historical world without any change in climate. aniau. Of the storms that caused the storm, 11% of the rain fell during the rainy season more than any other, the study found.

The basic law of physics is that it can hold the air at about 4% more humidity per degree Fahrenheit than air temperature (7% more per degree Celsius). Worldwide, temperatures have risen by about 2 degrees (1.1 degrees Celsius) since before the industry. And the water of the Atlantic hurricane basin, which produces waste fuel, has warmed up to about 1.3 degrees (.7 degrees Celsius) in the past century, Wehner said.

“That signal will increase significantly as sea temperatures continue to rise,” Reed said.

The storms are getting stronger, which is why they get wet, Wehner said.

“The expected increase in storms is probably the strongest prediction of the response of storms to climate change,” said Kerry Emanuel, an MIT aerospace scientist. he was part of the research team. But learning is limited by not looking at how climate change affects storms, intensity and frequency, he said.

Forecasts predict a strong wind season with 19 storms, 9 storms.

More information:
Kevin A. Reed et al, The prediction of the 2020 hurricane is that there is a lot of rain in changing the man -made climate, Nature Communications (2022). DOI: 10.1038 / s41467-022-29379-1

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